CA Bay News — Election Desk
The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive statewide races in the country, with early polling showing a razor-thin contest in a state that continues to define America’s political middle.
The general election is set for November 3, 2026, with party primaries on August 4, 2026. The race will also mark the first time Arizona voters elect a governor and lieutenant governor on a joint ticket, following the passage of Proposition 131.
The Political Landscape
Arizona remains a purple battleground, even after Donald Trump carried the state by roughly 5.5 points in 2024. Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who narrowly won in 2022, is now defending her seat in a more challenging national environment for Democrats.
Most available polling comes from late 2025, with limited new data released in early January 2026. Even so, the numbers point to an evenly divided electorate and a high-stakes primary battle on the Republican side.
Republican Primary: Biggs Emerges as Early Front-Runner
Among Republicans, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs has established a clear early lead over business executive Karrin Taylor Robson and Rep. David Schweikert.
Recent GOP primary polling (late 2025):
- Biggs: ~46–50%
- Taylor Robson: ~17–18%
- Schweikert: ~5–8%
- Undecided: ~25–30%
Analysts note that Biggs draws particularly strong support from Trump voters, older Republicans, and voters prioritizing border enforcement. Both Biggs and Taylor Robson hold endorsements from Trump, underscoring how influential immigration politics remain inside the GOP primary electorate.
With a large share of undecided voters still in play, the primary remains competitive—but Biggs enters 2026 as the candidate to beat.
General Election Polling: A Statistical Dead Heat
Hypothetical general election matchups show no clear favorite, regardless of which Republican emerges.
Late-2025 polling highlights:
- Hobbs vs. Biggs: 44%–43% (tie within margin of error)
- Hobbs vs. Taylor Robson: 43%–42% (tie)
- Hobbs vs. Schweikert: Hobbs holds a modest ~5-point edge
Undecided voters consistently range from 13% to 20%, signaling volatility and significant room for movement as the campaigns ramp up.
Race Ratings: Consensus Calls It a Toss-Up
Major election forecasters largely agree that Arizona is firmly in battleground territory:
- Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-Up
- Inside Elections: Toss-Up
- Race to the White House: Lean Democratic (slight Hobbs edge)
Arizona is frequently cited as one of the most vulnerable Democratic governorships in states carried by Trump in 2024.
What Issues Are Driving Voters?
Polling suggests a shift in voter priorities since the 2024 presidential race.
Top issues for Arizona voters (late 2025 polling):
- Economy / Cost of Living — rising concern
- Immigration / Border Security — still important, but declining
- Housing affordability
- Education and healthcare
- Threats to democracy
This shift helps explain the tight polling:
- Voters focused on the economy tend to lean toward Hobbs.
- Voters focused on immigration overwhelmingly favor Biggs and other Republicans.
Among independents—often decisive in Arizona—economic dissatisfaction and mixed views of Trump’s record could prove pivotal.
Candidate Strategies Taking Shape
- Katie Hobbs is emphasizing affordability, housing, education, and bipartisan governance, presenting herself as a stabilizing force amid national political turbulence.
- Republican contenders are leaning heavily into border security, public safety, taxes, and spending restraint, framing the election as a referendum on Democratic leadership in a Trump-friendly state.
What to Watch Next
With the candidate filing deadline still months away, the race could shift based on fundraising, debates, endorsements, and turnout dynamics—especially among independents and suburban voters.
For now, Arizona’s 2026 governor’s race stands as a true toss-up, likely to be decided by narrow margins and late-breaking voter sentiment.
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