Utah’s Population Growth Slows—but the Real Story Is What Comes Next

By Michael Phillips | CABayNews | Utah Regional Coverage

Utah is still growing—but not the way it has in recent years, and not without warning signs that deserve closer scrutiny.

According to new population estimates released by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and reported by KSL.com, Utah added roughly 44,351 residents between July 2024 and July 2025, bringing the state’s population to about 3.55 million. That represents a 1.3% growth rate, down from about 1.5% the year prior.

At first glance, the numbers appear reassuring: Utah remains one of the fastest-growing states in the nation. But beneath the headline lies a significant demographic shift—and a set of long-term challenges that state leaders may not be prepared to confront.

A Historic Shift: Births, Not Migration, Drive Growth

For the first time this decade, Utah’s population growth was driven primarily by natural increase—births minus deaths—rather than net migration. Only about 43% of growth came from people moving into the state, the lowest share in four years.

Emily Harris, senior demographer at the Gardner Institute, described the shift as a return to Utah’s historical pattern before the pandemic-era migration surge.

But that “return to normal” comes with caveats. Slowing migration is not necessarily a policy win—it increasingly reflects housing unaffordability, high interest rates, and cost-of-living pressures that make Utah less accessible to working families and young professionals.

Growth Concentrates Along the Wasatch Front

As expected, growth remains heavily concentrated in a handful of counties:

• Utah County led the state for the sixth straight year, adding nearly 16,000 residents, accounting for more than a third of statewide growth.
• Salt Lake County added over 8,000 residents.
• Washington County grew by nearly 4,800, continuing rapid expansion in southern Utah.
• Tooele and Iron counties topped the list in percentage growth at roughly 3% each.

Meanwhile, five rural counties lost population, including Daggett, Garfield, Piute, Wayne, and San Juan counties—continuing a quiet but persistent urban-rural divide.

Rural Decline, Urban Strain

The migration of people and opportunity toward the Wasatch Front brings consequences on both ends of the map.

Urban counties face mounting pressure on roads, schools, water systems, and housing supply, while rural communities struggle with declining enrollment, shrinking tax bases, and loss of young residents. Once schools close and services disappear, recovery becomes increasingly difficult.

This imbalance rarely features in statewide policy debates dominated by fast-growing metro areas.

Water: The Constraint No One Wants to Talk About

Even at a moderated pace, Utah’s growth continues to strain limited water resources in one of the driest states in the country.

Washington County, in particular, faces acute challenges as communities like St. George plan for long-term expansion amid drought conditions and Colorado River uncertainty. State audits have already flagged overly optimistic water projections in some cities.

Natural increase does not reduce water demand. More residents—regardless of how they arrive—mean more consumption, more infrastructure, and higher risk if conservation and supply planning fall short.

Housing Costs Are Slowing Growth—for Now

One reason migration has slowed is simple: Utah has become expensive.

With median home prices hovering around $550,000 and mortgage rates still elevated, Utah now ranks among the least affordable housing markets in the country. That reality may cool in-migration temporarily, but it also threatens to push out the next generation of Utahns raised in the state.

The result is a troubling feedback loop: demand remains strong due to natural growth, prices stay high, and affordability worsens—without the labor influx needed to sustain economic momentum.

A Pro-Family State Faces a Fertility Reality

Perhaps the most overlooked trend is Utah’s steep fertility decline.

Once the nation’s leader in birth rates, Utah’s fertility rate has fallen to around 1.8 births per woman, with projections suggesting a drop to 1.6 by 2065. That shift points to an aging population, rising dependency ratios, and future workforce shortages—even in a state long seen as demographically resilient.

Economic pressure, delayed family formation, and housing costs are eroding Utah’s traditional demographic advantages.

The Bigger Picture

Utah’s slower growth is not a crisis—but neither is it a victory lap. It is a signal.

Long-term projections still show the state reaching 5.6 million residents by 2065, but whether that growth is sustainable, affordable, and evenly distributed remains an open question.

Water scarcity, housing affordability, rural decline, and demographic aging are not abstract concerns—they are structural challenges that demand serious policy attention now, not after the next surge.

For concerned citizens, the takeaway is clear: the numbers may look stable, but the pressures underneath are building.